A few stats from prominent analyst Arjun Murti offer a sobering case for why a global peak in oil demand may be very far away.

The big picture: In a compelling analysis, he notes the 1 billion who live in the U.S., Canada, western Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand averaged 13 barrels per capita annually last year.

The rest of the globe's roughly 7 billion people? A mere three barrels, Murti's writes in the latest of several recent posts on the topic.
"Even as attempts are made to reduce rich-country oil demand, the upside potential in the developing world we believe is magnitudes greater," writes Murti, a Goldman Sachs veteran who's now a partner at Veriten LLC.
In a video, he argues demand increases are inevitable for at least the next decade, "and frankly I think it is going to be much longer than that." Murti likes renewables and electric vehicles but describes himself as a realist. "I am not advocating for fossil fuels. What I am doing is applying analysis."
State of play: Murti notes electric vehicles, renewables and other non-fossil sources will meet some of this growing demand; so per-capita oil use everywhere certainly won't grow enough to match today's rich consuming nations.

Still, oil will play a major role.
Murti calls this a matter of economic justice, as people seek to escape poverty and have higher living standards.
Why it matters: The timing of when oil demand peaks — and, crucially, the slope of the decline — has big repercussions for global carbon dioxide emissions, and beyond.

Threat level: Murti, whose other affiliations include Columbia University's energy think tank and ConocoPhillips' board of directors, has been writing on this a lot lately. He argues the discussion of hypothetical demand horizons has real stakes, because unrealistic forecasts can distort policy and investment.

"There actually isn't an end in sight...and we need to recognize that and we need to incorporate that into how we view the world."

The other side: There's no consensus, but some analysts call the late 2020s or early 2030s very possible.

For instance, the International Energy Agency recently projected demand growth will slow "markedly" in the next few years, with a peak "in sight before the end of this decade."
Of note: Think tank Resources For the Future does yeoman's work in comparing what various analysts project.

Quick take: Who knows what the next five years hold, let alone the next 25.

Recall the minority view during the early COVID days that demand would never regain pre-crisis levels.
The bottom line: "...The idea that crude oil will not play a role [in growth] and would globally decline is pure fantasy. Looking at the numbers, it's not a close call," Murti adds.