The end of gas stations as we know them is on the horizon. The internal combustion engine (ICE) is giving way to electric vehicles (EVs). Already EVs are hitting the market that can tow RVs and their development is continuing at lightning pace. Electric vehicles arguably now have what it takes to enjoy an epic road trip across the nation.
So much is the massive change coming that Telsa alone plans to produce 20 million cars annually by 2030 (up from 1 million now). To put that in perspective only 66.7 million cars were sold in the whole world in 2021! So how long will gas stations still be around for and what is going to replace them?
The Race To EVs
The race to convert over to EVs is fast picking up pace. Norway's ban on ICE's comes into effect in 2025 - just 3 years from now. While many other countries are banning them from 2030 including Sweden, the United Kingdom (hybrids from 2035), and even the state of Washington.
Washington state plans to phase out the purchase of new ICEs by 2030 with California and other states to follow by 2035. More states and countries are likely to continue bringing their phase-out targets forward.
Norway has already succeeded (the vast majority of their new cars are now fully electric with only around 5% being fully fossil-fueled with no hybridization. It should only get easier from there as more options hit the market and the technology continues to develop.
That basically means Norway is now in the process of removing its old ICE vehicles off the roads. This will take a number of years as the average life of a car is 12 years or 200,000 miles.
The Outlook For Gas Stations
By 2030 there will likely be few ICE vehicles remaining on the roads in Norway, while their numbers will be in terminal decline in the United States. Another threat to gas stations is hybrids that are also eroding consumption.
Today there are around 150,000 service stations around the United States today. And Boston Consulting Group calculates that between 25% and 80% of gas stations could be unprofitable by 2035. The real profitability of these gas stations is their convenience stores - drinks and chocolate bars. The gasoline is to draw motorists in.
So it seems for sure that by 2030 traditional gas stations will be in terminal decline across the United States and Europe.
Must Adapt To Survive
To survive they will need to reinvent themselves. And they will be in competition with the likes of Starbucks and other cafes and restaurants. People will want to stop and enjoy a coffee or lunch while their car charges.
One can get a glimpse of how Shell is seeking to reinvent its stations in the UK.
Gas stations will no longer be gas stations. They will need to have charging points and will need to have a cafe - they will need to be something more interesting. Some ways they can develop includes:
Charging: Obviously The Will Need To Add Charging
Transform: They Need to Stop Being Smelly Unpleasant Places And Instead Be A True "Service Station"
It is obvious that many of the gas stations will disappear but some will manage the transition. Others may just pull out their tanks and just be a convenience store.
Competition From Cafes, Restaurants, Parking Lots, And Supercharging Stations
But for those who don't change, the future is bleak. Even those who install chargers will be in competition with cafes and restaurants placing chargers out the front to entice customers into their restaurants. Plus they will be in competition with Tesla's and other's supercharging networks.
Charging Places: Cafes, Restaurants, Parking Lots, Supercharging Stations - Your Garage
Superfast: The Plan Is For EVs to Be able To Charge In As Little As 15 Minutes By 2030
Where would you like to chill for 20 minutes as your car is juiced up? Tim Holton's? Starbucks? Or a traditional gas station with chargers? Of course, these are not necessarily mutually exclusive as they are often found together anyway.
But even random Tim Holton's disconnected from a gas station and parking lots may be installing charging stations taking business from traditional gas stations trying to transition. One can just charge while parked at work.
Of course, some gas stations will live on - gasoline will be needed for things like chain saws, generators, and the like, but they will be a shadow of their former selves.